AS things stand today, rice, along with sugarcane, is becoming an increasingly ‘unaffordable crop’ because of growing water shortage. It is especially true for ‘coarse and other’ varieties of rice that now cover over 70 per cent of the sown area.
Currently, Pakistan is sowing three categories of rice: basmati, coarse and others – huge array of hybrids and some smuggled varieties of unknown origin. Of all these three categories, only super basmati can bring better price in international market and can, to some extent, justify consumption of huge water resources.
The other two categories have become a very costly drag on water resources. Both of them neither have substantial domestic market nor attractive prices in the world market.
The international price differential between them and basmati is around 300 per cent – $300 per ton for coarse crop against $1,200 per ton for super basmati. But the three categories take the same amount of water – around 3,000 litters per kilogramme – to mature.
Can Pakistan continue wasting its precious water resources to get dirt cheap price in the world market? Of course not! Water is emerging as the most crucial factor in agricultural settings. Almost all new technologies now revolve around water, not crop as traditional concept was. So, it may be time to shift its agricultural and cropping priorities to match its water realities.
Other countries have already started making such a shift. India has already legislated to shift its rice crop to the monsoon season instead of ground or canal water. In 2009, it promulgated “Sub-Soil Water Preservation Act” and restricted its farmers from planting nursery before May 10 and sowing before June 10 – thus reducing irrigational requirements of canal water and maximising use of monsoon rains.
In Pakistan, it is total reverse. Farmers here start planting nursery as soon as in April and sowing crop in May. Thus, by the time monsoon hits the country, the crop has already received three to four irrigations – all coming from canal water. That is exactly the point where Pakistan needs to make the shift. It must shift sowing deadline to later part of June or first week of July, and then ensure both deadlines.
India, experts say, is already reaping the benefit of the Act. During the last two years, sub-soil water level in the rice belt of Indian Punjab has increased by seven centimetres.
Pakistan needs to make the shift more urgently than India because huge water consumption of its rice crop are simply mind boggling. The country matures its rice crop with around 17 million acre feet (MAF) of water – more than three proposed Kalabagh Dams (5maf) and more than two Diamir-Bhasha dams (8maf), the biggest possible dam in the country. The cost of crop becomes even horrendous when taken in financial terms.
According to agricultural economists, one million acre feet (MAF) water, if used judicially, should benefit an economy by $2 billion annually. Thus, the rice crop, in its present settings, takes some $34 billion worth of water to mature and earns roughly $2 billion in foreign exchange. Does that make sense to anyone? Certainly not!
The latest export figure further exposes the folly the country is sticking to at a greater financial peril. According to them, it exported two million tons of rice during first seven months – up to January 31 – and earned $1.141 billion. During these months, basmati export went up by 17 per cent but earnings increased by only 12 per cent because of price factor. Even its premier variety is suffering from price decline. Why should it be sticking to those varieties that do not make economic sense at all?
It is not to suggest that Pakistan should abandon rice crop altogether, but to advocate re-positioning of the crop, especially of coarse and other varieties. These two categories consume around 12maf of water (read $20 billion) and earn a few hundred million dollars. It hardly makes sense especially when the world is shifting to niche markets, and adjusting domestic agriculture patterns accordingly. Why should Pakistan be an exception?
Water realities are changing fast. The country had the worst kinds of floods in July and August last year and is currently suffering 12 per cent shortages, barely six months after. The cropping pattern now needs to be shifted to suit water realities.
Rice, being a water guzzling crop, must be the prime candidate for realignment. Sugarcane can be the next. Rice crop, which is not a staple – its per capita consumption is only 15kg against 124kg of wheat – must quickly be repositioned.
By shifting the nursery planting and sowing dates, and then observing them strictly, Pakistan can get rid of many so-called hybrid varieties because they would not fit the timeframe. Interestingly, the current date of nursery sowing is May 10, but hardly anyone in the country observes it. It is especially true in potato growing areas.
Pakistan needs to take this deadline to the end of May and actual sowing towards the end of June so that it can save precious water resources and utilise them for other better priced crops.
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